Democratic Primary Part Two, Electric Boogaloo
Yes, you have to go vote (again). Of course, I am here to help.
Happy Monday, and welcome to the tenth edition of Waco Can’t Wait, a progressive newsletter focusing on McLennan County, Texas, and Federal politics. After a great week in Vegas, my wife and I are home and excited to get back into our normal routine.
I am including a new section in Waco Can’t Wait where I will cite neat articles and white papers related to political organizing and messaging. One of my goals for this newsletter is to provide resources for current and future organizers, activists, and candidates. It is important that we disseminate this information so we can continue to grow in strength. This new addition to the newsletter was inspired by a suggestion from my Readers Survey, which is still open if anyone would like to make any comments!
Also, if you would prefer to receive my newsletter in an app (rather than your email inbox), Substack has launched a new app for iPhones (and Androids in the future).
Now that all of the results are finalized from the March Democratic Primary, we can look forward to the May 24th Primary Runoff for candidates that did not meet the 50% threshold.1 I’ll be taking a quick look at the unresolved races and providing a little more context on the remaining candidates. But first, let’s take a look at the news!
Week in review (a collection of news from Waco, Texas, and beyond)
Waco:
After filing closed on Monday, the Special Election for Waco City Council District 2 will be contested by Tiffany Vidaña, Armando Arvizu, and Alice Rodriguez. While all candidates share an interest in improving communication between the city while also ensuring equitable development, I believe it is time for a new, younger voice on city council. As a resident of District 2, I will be supporting and volunteering my time with Tiffany Vidaña. Consider checking out her FB page, making a contribution, and volunteering on her campaign!
Texas:
Judge Amy Clark Meachum in Travis County has halted abuse inquires into parents of transgender children. Judge Meachum wrote that Governor Abbott’s order, which considers hormone and puberty-suppression drugs child abuse, is likely unconstitutional and violates separation of powers. The State of Texas has appealed the decision. This decision comes in the wake of state harassment of families with transgender children and health clinics providing gender-affirming care shutting down because of political pressure.
More than 60 major companies recently signed onto an ad campaign calling for an end to these attacks on trans youth, but I think that the only sufficient action they could take would be to suspend all contributions to anti-LGBTQ politicians and request any recent contributions be refunded. I’m not going to hold my breath.
If Greg Abbott really wanted to use his office to protect children, he could start with formerly sex trafficked children being sexually and physically abused in a Texas DFPS contracted facility. While Abbott has ordered an investigation by the Texas Rangers, Congressman Joaquin Castro was correct to point out that this abuse happened under Greg Abbott’s watch. If Abbott had it his way, transgender youth would be sent into this same system that in 2015 was found to “routinely violate the constitutional rights of kids in the foster care system.” Furthermore, “LGBTQ children enter foster care at a much higher rate than their heterosexual peers, and within the system, they face much greater challenges.”
More than 27,000 mail-in ballots were flagged for rejection during the recent Texas primary election, with initial rejection rates coming out to around 17% across 120 counties. While the final rejection rate will likely be lower, it will still be significantly higher than the less than 1% of mail ballots rejected during the 2020 general election.
United States:
The United States Senate passed a $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill, including $13.6 billion in aid for Ukraine. This package was passed on a 68-31 vote, and compromises had to be made. While Democrats had to agree to a $42 billion increase in defense spending to get a $46 billion increase in non defense discretionary spending (social programs), they were also able to secure the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA).
The Texas Supreme Court ruled that “state officials do not have the ability to enforce the state's six-week abortion ban [Senate Bill 8], effectively ending providers' case challenging the law.” Because state officials do not enforce this law, they may not be sued to challenge the constitutionality of the law. Given the unique enforcement nature of Senate Bill 8 (that its provisions are enforced by private civil actions rather than criminal sanction), abortion providers have had trouble finding the correct party to sue so they may challenge the constitutionality of the law. The U.S. Supreme Court has also acknowledged the novelty of this law, but has declined to rule that these civil actions effectively deny women of a constitutional right.
Political Organizing/Communication: (new section!)
MOVE Texas wrote an excellent article advocating for increased electoral engagement on college campuses. Here are some of the highlights:
Texas’ youth population increased by 6% between 2010 and 2020, the highest rate in the country.
In 2020, college students turned out to vote at 66% of eligible voters. That said, when colleges implemented a plan to engage with their students on the electoral process for more than one election cycle, the turnout rate increased to 71%.
When community colleges were engaged with in a similar manner, these initiatives yielded an 18% increase in turnout compared to nonparticipating colleges.
With three institutions of higher learning in McLennan County (Baylor, MCC and TSTC), it is important that we engage not only with the students but also with the universities to create programming that deeply engages with our young people.
In coordination with Progress Texas, political science professor Dr. Katherine Haenschen wrote “The Conditional Effects of Microtargeted Facebook Advertisements on Voter Turnout.” Haenschen found that “there is limited evidence as to [FB advertisements] effectiveness on voting behavior.” That said, these advertisements may be effective depending on the message, audience, and specific election. One audience that saw an increase in voter turnout (1.66%) was individuals in competitive congressional districts exposed to ads about abortion rights and women’s healthcare.
What does this mean? If Democrats and progressive candidates are going to try to utilize digital platforms to increase turnout (distinguishable from educating and engaging with an existing audience), then they need to make sure they are doing A/B testing and considering the message, who is receiving the message, and the context in which it is being shared.2
Who Remains In The Primary Runoff?
Before we jump into the unresolved races, I thought I would share the statewide and local candidates who will be advancing to the general election:
Governor - Beto O’Rourke (91.4% of the vote)
Agriculture Commissioner - Susan Hays (82.8% of the vote)
Railroad Commissioner - Luke Warford (uncontested)
U.S. House District 17 - Mary Jo Woods (uncontested)
Texas House District 56 - Erin Shank (uncontested)
Texas House District 12 - Cedric Davis Sr. (73.1% of the vote)
Now let’s look at the remaining races:
Attorney General Results
Rochelle Garza - 436,612 (42.9%)
Joe Jawarski - 201,580 (19.8%)
After the recording of 6,000 unrecorded Democratic mail-in ballots in Harris County, civil rights attorney Lee Merritt suspended his campaign for AG. Merritt was 4,000 votes away from clinching the second place spot to make it into the runoff, and Merritt has now endorsed Garza.
My support continues to lie with Garza. While Jaworski has public service experience as the former Mayor of Galveston3 and is the grandson of Watergate Prosecutor Leon Jaworski, I believe that Garza’s experience as an ACLU attorney uniquely prepares her for the job of Attorney General. She has represented undocumented immigrants, transgender individuals, and most famously a young undocumented woman seeking an abortion while in U.S. custody.
All of these marginalized groups have been consistent fodder for a GOP that finds it politically advantageous to attack vulnerable people. We need a woman in the AG’s office who will reverse these trends, and usher in ethical leadership that we can be proud of. That woman is Rochelle Garza.
Lieutenant Governor Results
Mike Collier - 421,026 (41.7%)
Michelle Beckley - 303,884 (30.1%)
Despite running for statewide office three different times, Collier failed to advance to the general election without going through a runoff. That said, Collier is no stranger to close primary elections. He defeated Michael Cooper in 2018 by 45,346 votes out of 955,790 cast. Collier also continues to be the most electable candidate with the best plan to win.
I have already shared why I think Collier would be a great candidate, so let me explain why Beckley should NOT be your choice for Lieutenant Governor. Look no further than a tweet from her former Chief of Staff in the Texas House:
Beckley has also been plagued by accusations of racism during her 2018 run for Texas House District 56. While in office, her legislative record has been uneventful. In the most recent legislative session, the Texas Monthly labeled her “furniture” for being “scarcely distinguishable from [her] chair” because of her consistent inaction on the House floor. This race for LG was also not her first choice. After Beckley got a little taste of the spotlight when Democrats left the state to protest voter suppression legislation, she announced a short-lived campaign for Texas’ 24th congressional district. She quickly jumped out after it was clear that this seat would no longer be competitive. Collier is the superior candidate in so many ways, and we cannot take a risk on a candidate defined by controversy, inaction, and expediency.
Land Commissioner Results
Sandragrace Martinez - 311,338 (32.0%)
Jay Kleberg - 251,416 (25.8%)
These results were strange to say the least. The two candidates with the most experience and best-funded campaigns placed second and third behind a candidate who had $42.47 cash on hand as of February 22nd. Martinez is currently a family therapist in San Antonio, who cites her “Zoom expertise” as a qualifying factor in a race for Land Commissioner.
I won’t begin to speculate on how someone with this little money and statewide campaigning could end up being the top performer, but I will say that Jay Kleberg continues to be my choice for this race. He has a strong background as a conservationist, will be a formidable fundraiser, and has demonstrated his commitment to campaigning statewide.
Comptroller Results
Janet Dudding - 446,928 (46.1%)
Angel Luis Vega - 335,843 (34.7%)
Lastly, we have come to the race for Comptroller. I would say that either of these candidates would be great Democratic nominees in November, but I am sticking with Janet Dudding! Dudding has experience running for office, comes to this role with a wealth of experience as an accountant working in government, and has a bold vision for the Comptroller’s office.
When we get closer to the primary runoff, I will make sure to send y’all some reminders. It is incredibly important that we have a strong slate of candidates in November. Feel free to do some more research, and I am always a resource for y'all. Enjoy the week!
I would like to take a moment to humble brag and say that all of my recommended candidates will advance to either the primary runoff or the general election. Not too shabby!
At the end of the day, you can never go wrong with good old door knocking.