Department of Justice Files Suit Against Texas
DOJ alleges discriminatory intent in the crafting of new Congressional and State House maps.
Hello, and welcome to the third edition of Waco Can’t Wait, a progressive newsletter focusing on McLennan County, Texas, and Federal politics. It has been a whirlwind of a week between campaign announcements and the Department of Justice suing Texas, and even I had a hard time keeping up with all of it. I hope y’all find this to be a helpful edition, and if so, make sure to share it with someone else who is trying to sort through all of the noise.
Also, Waco Can't Wait now has a Facebook Page! Make sure to give it a like and send an invite to anyone who might enjoy learning more about what is going on in our community, state, and elsewhere.
This last week, the Department of Justice filed suit against the State of Texas alleging racial gerrymandering in the Congressional and State House maps. The results of this litigation will have huge implications for Texas and the Country over the next decade, and it is important that we understand what is at stake. But first, let’s look at the news!
Week in review (a collection of news from Waco, Texas, and beyond)
Waco:
The Waco Economic Index continues to show steady increases in spending, low unemployment, and strong economic development.
Employment fully recovered the COVID losses in May of this year and has continued to improve since then, meaning new employment records are now being set in Waco.
On Tuesday, the Waco City Council held initial votes on the Redistricted City Council Maps. With respect to population growth over the last decade, Council Districts 3 & 5 needed to shed some voters and Districts 1, 2, & 4 needed to add new voters to balance the populations.
As far as I am concerned, this proposed map does a good job of addressing the growth in population while also preserving the demographic composition of the respective districts. Council still has to make it official with another vote, but it looks like these will be our maps for the next decade. Not bad at all.
Cedric Davis Sr. of Marlin (Falls County) has officially filed for House District 13 (which includes part of McLennan County). Davis is the current City Manager of Marlin, TX, and was also the first African-American Mayor of Balch Springs in Dallas County. In 2018, he became the first African-American candidate of a major political party to finish within the top three primary finishers in a Texas Governor’s race. Davis is a former Desert Storm Veteran, Police Chief, and Public Educator. Stay tuned for a more in-depth interview about his campaign!
Texas:
According to a poll from Quinnipiac University, Greg Abbott leads Beto O’Rourke 52% to 37% in the race for governor. Abbott’s approval rating also sits at 53%, an improvement from his September low of 44%. Here is how voters felt when asked who would do a better job handling six different issues:
the economy: 60% Abbott, 32% O'Rourke;
gun policy: 60% Abbott, 33% O'Rourke;
border security: 58% Abbott, 35% O'Rourke;
election laws: 55% Abbott, 40% O'Rourke;
coronavirus response: 54% Abbott, 39% O'Rourke;
abortion: 49% Abbott, 41% O'Rourke.
Democratic Candidate Matthew Dowd has announced he is ending his campaign for Lieutenant Governor, saying that being a “white male christian” is standing in the way of an increasingly diverse primary. Reactions to Dowd’s exit have been mixed at best, with one of my favorite comments coming from Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson:
Kim Olson, the 2018 Democratic Nominee for Commissioner of Agriculture, has announced she is running for Texas Democratic Party (TDP) Chair. After Democrats’ defeat in 2020, incumbent Chairman Gilbert Hinojosa has been facing some backlash from the State Democratic Executive Committee. Though the TDP has since commissioned an autopsy of the 2020 race and reorganized its internal leadership, some Democrats still believe it is time to make a change.
Olson is pitching improved infrastructure for candidates and county chairs, better messaging tailored to different parts of the state, and narrowing the gap in rural/Republican counties. Olson is also promising to appoint a slate of party officers that represent the diversity of Texas.
The Texas Chapter 313 Corporate Tax Incentive Program is set to expire in 2022, and not a moment too soon. The efficacy of these incentives has always been pretty weak, and the cost to the taxpayers of Texas has been substantial.
The more than 500 projects with active deals through June 2020 are estimated to receive $10.8 billion in local property tax breaks over the 10-year length of their agreements.
Elsewhere:
Chalk up another victory for workers in 2021. In the midst of union drives and strikes across the nation, Starbucks workers in Buffalo, New York have voted in favor of unionizing. These workers faced steep odds against a company worth over $100 billion, but in the end the Elwood Starbucks voted 19-8 to unionize. This will hopefully lead to future organizing efforts across the country as fellow workers see the benefits of unionizing.
President Joe Biden hosted an online Democracy Summit with over 100 countries in an effort to fight international authoritarianism and strengthen existing democratic regimes. The most notable thing about this summit was who was not there and what went unsaid. Russia and China were not invited to this event, and both countries were alluded to in the course of the summit. President Biden also gave a speech that failed to mention the January 6th attack on the capitol and did not include a call for much needed democratic reforms in the United States.
President Biden has also presided over one of the most robust economic recoveries in U.S. history, and some are calling it the Biden Boom. Unemployment is down, wages are up, and inflation is starting to wain due to lowering gas prices and supply chain fixes. It remains to be seen if the economy will be the top issue next November, but let’s make sure to remind people on social media and in conversations how great things have gotten since Trump left office.
Department of Justice files suit against Texas, alleging racial discrimination in new Congressional and State House Maps.
Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department (DOJ) has filed suit against the State of Texas, alleging that Texas lawmakers discriminated against voters of color by denying Latino and Black voters equal opportunities to participate in the voting process.1 Let’s take a look at the allegations in the suit (all 45 pages of it), and what relief the DOJ is seeking on behalf of Texas voters.
Defining Terms:
CVAP: Citizen Voting-Age Population
SSVR: Spanish Surname Voter Registration
This is a helpful metric to estimate the % of Latino voters who are registered to vote relative to the eligible pool of voters.
SSTO: Spanish Surname Turnout
This tells us how many individuals with Spanish Surnames actually turned out to vote on a particular date.
Opportunity District: a district where minority voters have sufficient electoral power to choose their candidate of choice.
All of the numbers above are based on voter registration and election data from the 2020 Presidential Election.
RGV: Rio Grande Valley
API: Asian/Pacific Islander
Top Line Numbers:
Between 2010 and 2020, Texas grew by nearly 4 million residents, and minorities represented 95% of that growth.
Increase in population by race:
Hispanic/Latino —> 1,980,796 (49.5%)
Black —> 654,133 (16.4%)
Asian —> 689,430 (17.2%)
White —> 187,252 (4.7%)
Total Texas Population in 2020: 29,145,505
White —> 11,584,597 (39.8%)
Hispanic/Latino —> 11,441,717 (39.3%)
Black —> 3,629,872 (12.4%)
Asian —> 1,717,386 (5.9%)
CVAP: 18,181,330
Hispanic/Latino —> 5,429,160 (29.9%)
Black —> 2,383,950 (13.1%)
Asian —> 674,830 (3.7%)
Lets look at the different allegations being made by the DOJ
Texas Congressional District 23 (TX-23)
Here we go again. TX-23 has been a thorn in the side of Texas lawmakers for two consecutive rounds of redistricting, and it looks like Republicans are ready for round three. By replacing the district’s active Latino voters with low-turnout Latino citizens, the Republican legislature has eliminated a Latino opportunity district. Though the CVAP is still above 50%, the SSVR and SSTO have both been brought below 50%.
This district is currently represented by Tony Gonzales, a Latino Republican who was elected to the U.S. House in 2020 with 50.6% of the vote. The Latinos in the district, however, offered more cohesive support to Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, an API woman. This district has a history of electing Democrats and Republicans, but the recent changes to this seat likely put it out of reach for Democrats in 2022 and beyond.
Congressional Districts in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Harris County
Despite decades of rapid Latino population growth in both of these major metros, Republicans packed Latinos in existing opportunity districts and put other Latinos in majority White districts.
Republicans even went as far as to create a brand new district in Harris County with a White majority (despite Latinos accounting for half of the population growth in Harris County).
Texas House District 118 (HD 118)
This district was recently vacated by San Antonio Democrat Leo Pacheco, who had to leave the position for a full-time college teaching position. He was replaced in a November 2021 special election by Latino Republican Frank Lujan, who won the race with 51.2% of the vote.
Similar to their work in TX-23, Republicans reduced the Latino population to the point that the district no loner has a majority 2020 SSVR or SSTO. The district was originally going to be left as it was, but a last minute change was made despite the protests of the Bexar County delegation.
Texas House District 31 (HD 31)
This district is most notable for the recent party switch of its longtime representative, Ryan Guillen. Despite Trump winning this district by 14 points, Guillen still prevailed with 58.4% of the vote. With the district left as it was, it looked like Guillen would likely prevail in his reelection as a Democrat, especially given his more socially conservative stances.
That said, by adding Zapata, Wilson, and Karnes counties, while taking away Atascosa, Republicans were able to significantly chip away at Latino voting strength by double digits, most notably lowering the SSTO from 68.7% to 56.3%. It is still technically an opportunity seat, but the fact that RGV Latinos are more inclined to vote Republican makes it more challenging for any Democrat to succeed. That is part of why Guillen made the choice to switch to the Republican Party.
I think that the DOJ is going to have a tough time arguing that HD 31 needs to be changed. Hispanic voters in this district had more than enough room to choose their candidates of choice, and for them that was Trump and Guillen, both of whom are in line with the district’s socially conservative views.
I think that even with this new district, Guillen still would have had a strong chance to get reelected as a Democrat. Even though Trump would have won this new district by 25%, he would have only beat Clinton by 3.3% in 2016. That said, Guillen deciding to take the easy way out is immaterial. The question is whether Hispanics in the district have the ability to choose their candidate of choice. Given that Latino voters in this district still have a large majority of the vote, I don’t believe the court will find this district to be legally problematic. It also seems that there being a greater proportion of Latino Republicans weakens the case that a uniform voting bloc is being denied the right to choose their candidate of choice. The rule is not that a coalition of Latino Democrats be able to choose their candidate of choice.
Texas House Districts in El Paso and West Texas
Lastly, Republicans took away one of the six districts apportioned to El Paso and West Texas Hispanics, leaving them overpopulated by 4.5% on average. This overpopulation in Hispanic majority districts gave Republicans room to under-populate other districts in West Texas and the Panhandle that are predominantly White.
What would representative maps look like?
Based on 2020 Census data and 2015-2019 ACS citizenship data, proportional representation for Latino voters in Texas would be 11 Congressional seats and 45 Texas House seats. Under the enacted 2021 plans, Latino voters have the opportunity to elect their preferred candidates in 7 Congressional seats and 29 Texas House seats.
Based on 2020 Census data and 2015-2019 ACS citizenship data, proportional representation for Black voters in Texas would be 5 Congressional seats and 20 Texas House seats. Under the enacted plans, Black voters have the opportunity to elect their preferred candidates in roughly 3 Congressional seats and 13 Texas House seats.
Under the enacted plans, Latino and Black voters also have the opportunity to contribute to the election of preferred candidates in coalition with other minority voters in one Congressional seat and 5 Texas House seats.
Added together, Latino and Black voters should be entitled to 16 Congressional seats and 65 Texas House seats where they would be able to choose their preferred candidates. Instead, they only have control over 11 Congressional seats and 47 Texas House seats.
Impressions of the Suit
It is encouraging that the Biden Administration is taking an active role in the redistricting process. If the DOJ is successful, then we would see some kind of interim maps created that would remedy the unlawful components of the existing maps, and the Legislature would need to implement permanent maps that are in compliance with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. This would have huge implications for Latino voting strength in Texas and control of the U.S. House in 2022.
That said, the DOJ is running up against a hostile Supreme Court that over the last two decades has been making it more difficult to challenge racial and partisan gerrymandering. This article from Vox goes over some of the legal history that predates this litigation, including how the Court might rule. If SCOTUS decides that this is acceptable racial gerrymandering, and that it is justified by partisan rather than racial intent, then we can consider the Voting Rights Act to be sufficiently gutted.
Litigation alone cannot be the answer to racial and partisan gerrymandering. The United States needs new voting rights legislation that secures ballot access, bans partisan gerrymandering, establishes independent redistricting commissions, and renews the commitments originally made in the Voting Rights Act of 1965. All of this requires abolishing the Senate Filibuster Rule. Until then, we are at the mercy of a 6-3 conservative court devoted to the erosion of our constitutional rights. Good luck, Attorney General Garland.
If you would like an in-depth look at the totality of the redistricting process in Texas, some proposed reforms, and how the process affected other areas, check out this report from the Texas Civil Rights Project.