Third Times the Charm
What can we expect from Beto's most recent campaign announcement, and will he finally prevail?
Hello, and welcome to the second edition of Waco Can’t Wait, a progressive newsletter focusing on McLennan County, Texas, and Federal politics. The launch of this newsletter has already been a smashing success with over 2,000 subscribers, and we’re just getting started. As I continue to build this platform, I strongly encourage you to subscribe (if you haven’t already) and share my content on social media. We’ve got a lot of great things in store, and I don’t want anyone to miss a thing.
As we get closer to the March 1st Democratic Primary, I will be conducting interviews with candidates for local and statewide office to learn more about their background, discuss their platform, and find out how they plan to benefit Central Texans. In anticipation of some of these interviews, I would love to hear what questions y’all might have for these candidates. Stay tuned for details on how to be a part of the process.
Lastly, I feel that I would be committing malpractice if I didn't write something about Beto running for governor. I have been very excited about his announcement for some time, but I also have a healthy level of skepticism. I think it is important that we are aware of the pros and cons of any candidate so that we can have the full picture.
But first, let’s look at the news!
Week in review (a collection of articles from Waco, Texas, and beyond)
Waco:
I know it isn’t political, but I’m going to say it anyways: Baylor has won the Big 12 Championship. Sic’ Everything.
Prosper Waco released its Waco Snapshot Report, which provides an in-depth analysis of human flourishing in the City of Waco. The report looks at the following data sets: population and income, education, housing, health, labor & economic development, and connectivity. Some of the main takeaways: Waco has significant economic and ethnic inequality, where you live is a big determining factor of your wellbeing, and our city underperforms peer cities on most metrics. I would recommend taking a good look at this report and then sending it straight to your local elected officials. This needs to be a template for policy making over the next decade (and beyond).
If you’re a Waco ISD resident, you’re probably aware of some of the concerns surrounding the G.W. Carver/Indian Springs Middle Schools merger, one of the main ones being student safety. In response to these challenges, Transformation Waco gathered a coalition of community leaders and parents to start a new volunteer program called Partners on Duty.
I spoke with Waco ISD Trustee Jeremy Davis to learn more about the program:
This was partially inspired by the viral Dads on Duty video, and concerned citizens who wanted to help knowing that each of us has a role to play in improving our schools. This program provides community volunteers with the opportunity to give additional support during the lunch periods and transitional times on campus.
Volunteering could look like chatting with students during their lunch period or monitoring passing periods. Management of volunteers will be performed by Grassroots Waco.1 If you are interested in becoming a Partners on Duty volunteer:
Texas:
Matthew McConaughey is not running for Texas Governor. After months of will he or won’t he, McConaughey has decided he is alright, alright, alright with being a private citizen.
Ground Game Texas, a progressive nonprofit run by former congressional candidates Julie Oliver and Mike Siegel, has announced that it has collected enough signatures to get marijuana decriminalization and a ban on “no knock” warrants on the ballot in Austin for May 2022. This organization is largely focused on passing progressive ballot measures and organizing in off years to boost Democratic turnout. Perhaps organizers in Waco could look into similar measures in the future.
Texas Republicans are pushing for a fourth special session to pass a COVID-19 vaccine mandate ban. This is in the midst of the state suing the Biden administration over its vaccine mandates affecting federal contractors, private businesses, and healthcare workers.
Elsewhere:
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court heard a case out of Mississippi that could lead to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The Mississippi law under review would ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which violates the pre-viability standard from Roe that was affirmed in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. This did not used to be a partisan issue. When Roe was decided, five of the seven justices who voted with the majority were Republican appointees (three of those five were appointed by Nixon). Justice Sonia Sotomayor probably had the most memorable quote of the day: “Will this institution survive the stench that this creates in the public perception, that the Constitution and its reading are just political acts?”
Stacey Abrams has announced she will run for Governor of Georgia a second time. Abrams is one of the most popular figures in American politics, and her work over multiple cycles to register and talk to marginalized voters has paid huge dividends. She is one of the biggest reasons that Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020, and we can also thank her for the two Georgia senate seats that secured the Democratic Senate Majority. I would highly recommend checking out her announcement video, which is a master class in political messaging that tears down the things that separate us, calls out others for creating those divisions, and shows what we can achieve when we fight for the same goals. Reminds me of a certain junior senator from Illinois back in 2008.
You Beto, You Beto, You Bet
Texas Democrats have been waiting for months to see if Beto would run for Governor of Texas, and he has finally given us his answer. Unless LBJ or Jesus files for the Democratic Primary, it is a foregone conclusion that Beto will face the Republican nominee in the fall.2 Beto will undoubtedly bring a lot of excitement to this race and will be a strong challenger to Greg Abbott; that said, Beto will face some head winds from his past races and the tough political environment in 2022. All assessments of risk begin with - you guessed it - a pros and cons list!
Pros:
Democrats deserve to have a candidate that we can get excited about.
Beto is a genuinely exciting, inspiring candidate. Speaking from my own experience, Beto was the first race I ever worked on in a volunteer or professional capacity. His candidacy got me interested in electoral politics, and he did the same for many other young people, first time voters, and disenchanted Democrats looking for a voice.
He is a compelling speaker, his platform resonates with disillusioned voters, and he drives supporters to action. We need a candidate at the top of the ticket who will draw volunteers out of their homes, get them to contribute to his race, and boost turnout for down ballot Democrats.3
Beto is going to match Greg Abbott $ for $.
During his historic 2018 senate race, Beto raised a record $80,000,000, and his subsequent presidential race raised large sums of money while also increasing the breadth of his supporter base. Even while Beto hasn’t been running for office, he has been in charge of a statewide volunteer organization called Powered By People, which has raised large sums of money for voter registration and mobilization.
In the first 24 hours after Beto announced for Governor, he raised $2,000,000, and it is safe to assume he will continue to tap his nationwide small dollar network throughout the race.
Also, with no contribution limits in Texas state races, Beto can expect some ridiculous sums of money from in and out-of-state donors who are looking to make a significant impact on this race.
While some may recoil at the sums of money that will be spent in this race, I can all but guarantee that it will translate into some significant level of spending in places like Waco and McLennan County. In 2018, Beto was the only statewide candidate with a Waco field office full of paid staffers.4 The campaign was also paying for four paid student organizers on Baylor’s campus (I was one of them). That kind of investment benefits all of our down ballot candidates, while also improving our campaign data for the county.
Beto may be able to reverse the rightward drift of Hispanics in Texas.
As a representative of a border community and a fluent Spanish speaker, Beto has a better understanding of what it takes to engage with this community than most non-Hispanic Democrats. Beto has been very willing to criticize the state and national Democratic party’s lack of attention in the Rio Grande Valley (and Hispanic communities throughout the state), and he has already made a commitment in his own campaign to campaign hard in these communities.
Beto has also shown his willingness to take more moderate positions on issues like immigration, which is a salient issue in border communities. In the 2020 Democratic Primary for President, Beto and Joe Biden were the only two Democrats on stage willing to resist decriminalizing border crossings, and Beto was reluctant to take strong positions on Immigration in his 2018 senate race.
According to a Texas Tribune poll, only 26% of Hispanics approve of Biden’s handling of Immigration and Border Security, while 51% disapprove. That said, Abbott has only a 31% approval rating among Hispanics on his handling of Immigration, while 51% disapprove.
This leaves Beto some room to craft a message that distinguishes himself from the perceived failures of the Biden administration, while also drawing contrast with Greg Abbott’s botched attempts at border security.
Cons:
Beto is an early underdog in this race according to multiple polls.
The only person that has led Abbott in any polls consistently has been Matthew McConaughey, with the most recent poll by University of Texas at Tyler showing the King of Uvalde beating Abbott 43% to 35%. Despite a lot of Democrats taking issue with his potential candidacy (which is no longer going to happen), McConaughey drew a lot of support in these polls from Republicans (25%) and Independents (41%). In this same poll, Beto only drew support from 7% of Republicans and 32% of Independents.
Beto is a clearly defined candidate for most voters, and his numbers being this low already means that he needs to win a lion’s share of the remaining undecided voters. In a cycle that it going to be tough for Democrats nationwide, this will be a challenging task.
Beto has taken some controversial positions that may be out of step with the Texas electorate.
The most constant critique that I have heard from Democrats and potential Beto supporters is that he hurt his chances for future office by saying “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47” in response to a question about an assault weapons ban coupled with a mandatory buyback program. I would like to press back on the notion that this was the final nail in the coffin for Beto’s electoral prospects. Not soon after Beto spoke these words into existence, the Texas Tribune commissioned a poll on attitudes towards stricter gun laws in Texas. Here are the results:
51% of voters believe gun laws should be more strict, with only 13% saying they need to be less strict.
81% support background checks for all gun purchases, including 74% of Republicans.
59% of voters support banning sales of assault weapons, including 35% of of Republicans.
My takeaway from these numbers: Whether or not Texans write off Beto because of his comments on guns is still an open question, and that goes for the other positions he has taken in the past four years. What Beto benefits from is that the Texas Republican Party has shifted to the far right on all issues, which gives Beto’s campaign a lot of room in the middle to take positions that are more in step with the broader electorate.
That said, Greg Abbott has already been working hard to define Beto early on in this race, calling him “Wrong Way O’Rourke.” Beto’s team will need to work quickly to define his candidacy and clearly articulate his positions to his supporters, the media, and the broader electorate.
Candidates who run for a third time after having already lost two consecutive races historically do not have a strong track record.
Beto runs the risk of becoming a fringe candidate if he loses this race, and another loss could preclude him from running for any other position of power in the future. Looking to an article from FiveThirtyEight, candidates with multiple consecutive losses under their belt have a hard time seeking higher office.
This could be for a combination of reasons, but one reason stands out to me: making multiple runs for different offices in such rapid succession can make voters question your motives. You cease to become a genuine, once-in-a-generation candidate when people think you are just chasing a title. Beto will need to answer these questions to skeptical voters: why him, why this race, and why should voters pick him this time?5
Having said all of this, I am very excited for Beto’s candidacy. He has changed Texas politics for the better, and he will be the strongest challenger to Abbott in 2022. It is our duty as supporters to share his message, encourage his campaign to invest time and money in down ballot races, and continue to remind people of the extremist polices of the Texas Republican Party. This might be Beto’s last shot, so let’s give it everything we’ve got.
If you have any questions about the program, contact Josh Caballero from Grassroots Waco at josh@grassrootswaco.org
The 2020 Republican Gubernatorial Primary is probably worth its own article!
Speaking to the latter point, Democrats are looking at a tough midterm. Beto’s ground game will provide a firm floor for vulnerable incumbents looking at tough reelection campaigns.
I will be asking our statewide candidates about their commitment to investing in political organizing in McLennan County.
If I had it my way, Beto would have run for John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. He would have been able to roll over his campaign infrastructure into the new cycle and point to his very close loss in the prior race as a mandate to run again. With Beto at the top of the ticket, we may have been able to draw more of an investment from Biden’s presidential campaign, and we might have spotted the changes in voting behavior in South Texas. Oh well.